Where the market is wrong on Bari v Cavese
Bari meet Cavese in the Serie C - Girone C girone c - 1 at Stadio San Nicola, Bari.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 48%. Attacking output favors Bari on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 27%, over 2.5 goals around 18%. Draw no bet leans Bari at 53%; double chance reads Bari or draw 69%, Cavese or draw 66%.
Bari arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 7 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Cavese, W 1-0 v Casarano, D 0-0 @ Sudtirol, D 0-0 v Sudtirol.
Cavese are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 2 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Bari, L 0-2 @ Campobasso FC, L 0-1 v Juve Stabia, W 1-0 v Sarnese.
Bari hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Bari 3-0 Cavese.
The market prices BAR at 63% implied. Our number sits apart on Cavese: a 17.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 79 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
