Spezia beat Vis Pesaro 3-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, La Spezia.
How it unfolded: 6' A. Cardinali (SPE), 19' S. Mazzocchi (SPE), 55' F. Nicastro (VIS), 69' D. Cazzadori (SPE).
Discipline: 1 yellow card, 1 red (G. Barranco).
Changes off the bench: SPE 5, VIS 5.
The model's lean held: it made Spezia the most likely outcome at 56%, and the result followed. One result proves little; the ledger is the judge over the full tournament.
Score projection: the model's most likely scoreline was Spezia 3-0 Vis Pesaro; the match finished 3-1.
Ledger entry: the published 12.4-point edge on Vis Pesaro did not land. Logged in the open, as every edge is.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output and real match data
