Where the market is wrong on Perugia v Ostia Mare
Perugia meet Ostia Mare in the Serie C - Girone B girone b - 1 at Stadio Renato Curi, Perugia.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1581, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Ostia Mare, 60% against 50%. Attacking output favors Ostia Mare on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 43%, over 2.5 goals around 36%. Draw no bet leans Ostia Mare at 51%; double chance reads Perugia or draw 65%, Ostia Mare or draw 67%.
Perugia arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Ostia Mare, L 1-2 v Vis Pesaro, D 1-1 @ Forli, L 0-1 v Campobasso FC.
Ostia Mare are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 2 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Grosseto, L 0-1 @ Perugia, D 1-1 @ Latina, L 0-4 @ Lazio.
Perugia hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Perugia 1-0 Ostia Mare.
The market prices PER at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on Ostia Mare: a 11.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 80 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
