Where the market is wrong on Cremonese v Modena
Cremonese meet Modena in the Serie B regular season - 2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1509, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Modena, 50% against 36%. Attacking output favors Modena on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 39%, over 2.5 goals around 38%. Draw no bet leans Modena at 61%; double chance reads Cremonese or draw 58%, Modena or draw 73%.
Cremonese arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Modena, L 0-1 @ Empoli, W 2-0 v Sampdoria, D 0-0 v Lumezzane.
Modena are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Cremonese, W 2-1 @ Benevento, L 2-3 @ Venezia, D 0-0 v Vis Pesaro.
Cremonese hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Cremonese 0-3 Modena.
The market prices CRE at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Modena: a 12.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
