Where the market is wrong on AD Carmelita v Aserri FC
AD Carmelita meet Aserri FC in the Liga de Ascenso regular season - 5.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1483, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Aserri FC, 47% against 32%. Attacking output favors Aserri FC on expected goals, 1.2 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 59%, over 2.5 goals around 56%. Draw no bet leans Aserri FC at 54%; double chance reads AD Carmelita or draw 62%, Aserri FC or draw 68%.
AD Carmelita arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Aserri FC, W 1-0 @ Guadalupe FC, D 1-1 v Futbol Consultants Moravia, L 2-3 v Santa Ana.
Aserri FC are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Santa Cruz FC, W 2-1 @ AD Carmelita, W 3-2 v Municipal Grecia, D 1-1 v Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC.
The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece with 3 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: AD Carmelita 1-2 Aserri FC.
The market prices AD at 45% implied. Our number sits apart on Aserri FC: a 10.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 79 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
