Where the market is wrong on ADR Jicaral v Santa Cruz FC
ADR Jicaral meet Santa Cruz FC in the Liga de Ascenso regular season - 4.
ADR Jicaral rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1420. Recent form leans ADR Jicaral, 71% against 39%. Attacking output favors ADR Jicaral on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 43%, over 2.5 goals around 56%. Draw no bet leans ADR Jicaral at 68%; double chance reads ADR Jicaral or draw 77%, Santa Cruz FC or draw 51%.
ADR Jicaral arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 7 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v Santa Cruz FC, W 1-0 @ AD Cofutpa, D 1-1 v AD Sarchí, W 1-0 @ Aserri FC.
Santa Cruz FC are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 @ ADR Jicaral, L 1-2 v Municipal Grecia, W 3-1 v AD Cofutpa, L 0-4 @ Quepos Cambute.
The market prices ADR at 65% implied. Our number sits apart on Santa Cruz FC: a 8.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output