Where the market is wrong on Bury Town v Leiston
Bury Town meet Leiston in the Non League Premier - Southern Central regular season - 6.
The baseline ratings are close, 1615 to 1604, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 68% against 65%. Attacking output favors Bury Town on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 67%, over 2.5 goals around 68%. Draw no bet leans Bury Town at 55%; double chance reads Bury Town or draw 68%, Leiston or draw 61%.
Bury Town arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 11 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 @ Leighton Town, W 3-0 v Leamington, W 3-1 @ Stratford Town, W 1-0 @ Stamford.
Leiston are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 10 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Redditch United, D 2-2 @ Stourbridge, L 1-2 v Rushall Olympic, W 3-1 v Bishop's Stortford.
Bury Town hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Leiston 1-3 Bury Town.
The market prices BUR at 47% implied. Our number sits apart on Leiston: a 4.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
