Where the market is wrong on Port Vale v Mansfield Town
Port Vale meet Mansfield Town in the EFL Trophy group north - 4 at Vale Park, Stoke-On-Trent.
The baseline ratings are close, 1471 to 1483, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 44% against 47%. Attacking output favors Mansfield Town on expected goals, 1.7 to 0.9 per match.
Port Vale arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 3 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Chesterfield, L 0-2 @ Walsall, W 1-0 v Exeter City, L 0-1 @ Salford City.
Mansfield Town are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Burton Albion, D 0-0 v Huddersfield, L 0-1 @ Bradford, L 0-5 @ Reading.
Port Vale hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Mansfield Town 3-0 Port Vale.
The market prices POR at 38% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
