Where the market is wrong on Chesham United v Dover
Chesham United meet Dover in the National League - South national league south - 6 at The Meadow, Chesham.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1456, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 42%. Attacking output favors Chesham United on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 75%, over 2.5 goals around 83%. Draw no bet leans Chesham United at 62%; double chance reads Chesham United or draw 72%, Dover or draw 55%.
Chesham United arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 @ AFC Totton, W 2-0 v Walton & Hersham, L 0-1 @ Farnborough, L 2-3 @ Braintree.
Dover are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 11 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v Braintree, W 3-2 @ Weston-super-Mare, L 0-1 v Tonbridge Angels, W 5-3 v Slough Town.
Dover hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Dover 2-2 Chesham United.
The market prices CHE at 58% implied. Our number sits apart on Dover: a 9.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
