Where the market is wrong on Merthyr Town v Chorley
Merthyr Town meet Chorley in the National League - North national league north - 5 at Penydarren Park, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 38% against 34%. Attacking output favors Merthyr Town on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.9 per match.
Merthyr Town arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Buxton, D 1-1 v Chorley, D 1-1 @ South Shields, D 2-2 v AFC Telford United.
Chorley are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Brackley Town, D 1-1 @ Merthyr Town, W 2-1 v Scarborough Athletic, W 2-0 @ Marine.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Merthyr Town 1-1 Chorley.
The market prices MER at 43% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
