Where the market is wrong on Ümraniyespor v Esenler Erokspor
Ümraniyespor meet Esenler Erokspor in the 1. Lig regular season - 3 at Ümraniye Belediyesi Sehir Stadi, Istanbul.
Esenler Erokspor rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1604 to 1443. Recent form leans Esenler Erokspor, 65% against 43%. Attacking output favors Esenler Erokspor on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 49%, over 2.5 goals around 55%. Draw no bet leans Esenler Erokspor at 64%; double chance reads Ümraniyespor or draw 55%, Esenler Erokspor or draw 74%.
Ümraniyespor arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 5 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Keçiörengücü, D 1-1 v Esenler Erokspor, L 1-2 @ Fatih Karagümrük, D 0-0 v Mardin 1969.
Esenler Erokspor are patchy: 0W-4D-1L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Ümraniyespor, D 1-1 v Sarıyer, D 0-0 @ Sivasspor, L 0-2 v Çorum FK.
Esenler Erokspor hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ümraniyespor 1-1 Esenler Erokspor.
The market prices ÜMR at 22% implied. Our number sits apart on Ümraniyespor: a 3.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
