Where the market is wrong on Iğdır FK v Kayserispor
Iğdır FK meet Kayserispor in the 1. Lig regular season - 3 at Aktepe Stadium, Ankara.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 43%. Attacking output favors Iğdır FK on expected goals, 1.5 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 43%, over 2.5 goals around 43%. Draw no bet leans Iğdır FK at 61%; double chance reads Iğdır FK or draw 73%, Kayserispor or draw 58%.
Iğdır FK arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Kayserispor, L 0-1 @ Bursaspor, W 2-0 v Fatih Karagümrük, D 3-3 v Amed.
Kayserispor are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Iğdır FK, W 2-0 v Sivasspor, W 2-0 @ Vanspor FK, L 1-2 v Pendikspor.
Kayserispor hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 0 across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Iğdır FK 0-1 Kayserispor.
The market prices IĞD at 34% implied. Our number sits apart on Iğdır FK: a 8.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 73 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
