Where the market is wrong on Porthmadog v Bala Town
Porthmadog meet Bala Town in the FAW Championship north - 7.
The baseline ratings are close, 1444 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 42% against 48%. Attacking output favors Bala Town on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.
Porthmadog arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 8 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Bala Town, D 2-2 @ Holyhead Hotspur, L 1-3 v Caersws, W 3-2 @ Denbigh Town.
Bala Town are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 10 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Porthmadog, L 0-1 v Newtown AFC, W 3-1 @ Rhyl, W 3-0 v Gresford Athletic.
Bala Town hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Porthmadog 1-2 Bala Town.
The market prices POR at 25% implied. Our number sits apart on Porthmadog: a 4.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
