Where the market is wrong on Portsmouth v Cardiff
Portsmouth meet Cardiff in the Championship regular season - 5 at Fratton Park, Portsmouth.
The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1581, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Cardiff, 63% against 45%. Attacking output favors Cardiff on expected goals, 2.3 to 1.2 per match.
Portsmouth arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Derby, L 1-2 @ Bristol City, W 3-1 @ Lincoln, L 1-3 v QPR.
Cardiff are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Sheffield Utd, L 1-2 v Norwich, D 2-2 @ Derby, D 1-1 v Wrexham.
The market prices POR at 39% implied. Our number sits apart on Cardiff: a 16.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 85 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
