Where the market is wrong on Portsmouth v Derby
Portsmouth meet Derby in the Championship regular season - 4 at Fratton Park, Portsmouth.
The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 45%. Attacking output favors Derby on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.2 per match.
Portsmouth arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Derby, L 1-2 @ Bristol City, W 3-1 @ Lincoln, L 1-3 v QPR.
Derby are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Portsmouth, L 0-3 v Swansea, D 2-2 v Cardiff, L 1-2 @ Charlton.
Derby hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 6 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Portsmouth 0-2 Derby.
The market prices POR at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on Derby: a 14.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
