Where the market is wrong on Birmingham v Southampton
Birmingham meet Southampton in the Championship regular season - 4 at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Birmingham.
The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1674, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Southampton, 74% against 63%. Attacking output favors Southampton on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.4 per match.
Birmingham arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Southampton, W 2-1 @ Wrexham, L 1-6 v Brentford, D 2-2 v Bristol City.
Southampton are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 11 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Birmingham, W 5-1 v Millwall, L 1-4 v West Ham, W 3-1 v Stoke City.
The market prices BIR at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on Southampton: a 3.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 62 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
