Where the market is wrong on Ried v Grazer AK
Ried meet Grazer AK in the Bundesliga regular season - 4 at Innviertel Arena, Ried.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1480, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 45%. Attacking output favors Grazer AK on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 63%, over 2.5 goals around 61%. Draw no bet leans Ried at 52%; double chance reads Ried or draw 66%, Grazer AK or draw 64%.
Ried arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Grazer AK, L 1-4 @ Lask Linz, L 1-2 v Rapid Vienna, D 1-1 @ Austria Lustenau.
Grazer AK are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Ried, L 0-8 @ Rapid Vienna, W 2-1 v Austria Lustenau, L 0-3 @ Lask Linz.
Grazer AK hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ried 1-0 Grazer AK.
The market prices RIE at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on Grazer AK: a 9.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
