Where the market is wrong on Rodina Moskva v Baltika
Rodina Moskva meet Baltika in the Premier League regular season - 6 at Arena Khimki, Khimki.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 50%. Attacking output favors Rodina Moskva on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.6 per match.
Rodina Moskva arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 6 scored and 16 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Spartak Moscow, L 0-3 v Baltika, L 1-3 @ Dynamo, L 1-4 v FC Orenburg.
Baltika are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Krylia Sovetov, W 3-0 @ Rodina Moskva, D 1-1 v Rubin, D 1-1 v Dinamo Makhachkala.
The market prices ROD at 25% implied. Our number sits apart on Rodina Moskva: a 3.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
