Where the market is wrong on Caracas FC v Fundación Lara Deportiva
Caracas FC meet Fundación Lara Deportiva in the Copa Venezuela round 1 - group c.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 55%. Attacking output favors Fundación Lara Deportiva on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Caracas FC arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Deportivo Tachira FC, W 3-1 v Fundación Lara Deportiva, D 1-1 v Carabobo FC, W 3-2 @ Yaracuyanos FC.
Fundación Lara Deportiva are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Yaracuyanos FC, L 1-3 @ Caracas FC, L 2-5 @ Atletico el Vigia FC, W 1-0 @ Aragua FC.
Caracas FC hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Caracas FC 3-1 Fundación Lara Deportiva.
The market prices CAR at 72% implied. Our number sits apart on Fundación Lara Deportiva: a 30.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
