Where the market is wrong on Trujillanos FC v Urena SC
Trujillanos FC meet Urena SC in the Copa Venezuela round 1 - group d.
Urena SC rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1627 to 1400. Recent form leans Urena SC, 70% against 23%. Attacking output favors Urena SC on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 31%, over 2.5 goals around 52%. Draw no bet leans Urena SC at 73%; double chance reads Trujillanos FC or draw 47%, Urena SC or draw 81%.
Trujillanos FC arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 3 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Anzoátegui FC, D 2-2 v Urena SC, L 0-1 @ Portuguesa FC, L 1-3 v Deportivo Tachira FC.
Urena SC are steady: 1W-4D-0L from their last five (7/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Club Atletico Barinas, D 2-2 @ Trujillanos FC, D 1-1 v Fundación Lara Deportiva, D 2-2 @ Zamora FC B.
The market prices TRU at 57% implied. Our number sits apart on Urena SC: a 35.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 86 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
