Where the market is wrong on Xelajú v Mixco
Xelajú meet Mixco in the Liga Nacional regular season - 6 at Estadio Mario Camposeco, Quetzaltenango.
The baseline ratings are close, 1546 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 48%. Attacking output favors Xelajú on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 69%, over 2.5 goals around 71%. Draw no bet leans Xelajú at 56%; double chance reads Xelajú or draw 68%, Mixco or draw 60%.
Xelajú arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v Mixco, D 1-1 v Firpo, L 0-2 @ Municipal, W 2-0 v Diriangén.
Mixco are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 13 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 @ Xelajú, W 2-0 v Alianza FC, W 4-2 v Guastatoya, W 4-1 v UMECIT.
Xelajú hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Xelajú 4-1 Mixco.
The market prices XEL at 60% implied. Our number sits apart on Mixco: a 15.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
