Where the market is wrong on Warta Poznań v Arka Gdynia
Warta Poznań meet Arka Gdynia in the I Liga regular season - 8.
The baseline ratings are close, 1444 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Arka Gdynia, 48% against 39%. Attacking output favors Warta Poznań on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Warta Poznań arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, L 1-2 @ Miedz Legnica, W 1-0 @ Chrobry Głogów, L 1-3 @ Odra Opole.
Arka Gdynia are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 9 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v ŁKS Łódź, W 4-0 @ Resovia Rzeszów, D 1-1 v Polonia Bytom, L 0-2 @ Miedz Legnica.
Arka Gdynia hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Arka Gdynia 3-0 Warta Poznań.
The market prices WAR at 36% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
