Where the market is wrong on Liverpool v Fulham
Liverpool meet Fulham in the Premier League regular season - 4 at Anfield, Liverpool.
The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 43%. Attacking output favors Liverpool on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.9 per match.
Liverpool arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 8 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Nottingham Forest, D 2-2 @ Newcastle, D 0-0 v Como, L 2-3 v Monaco.
Fulham are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Sunderland, W 3-0 v AFC Wimbledon, L 2-3 v Chelsea, W 1-0 v VfB Stuttgart.
Liverpool hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Liverpool 2-0 Fulham.
The market prices LIV at 65% implied. Our number sits apart on Fulham: a 18.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
