Where the market is wrong on Aston Villa v Arsenal
Aston Villa meet Arsenal in the Premier League regular season - 2 at Villa Park, Birmingham.
Arsenal rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1615 to 1489. Recent form leans Arsenal, 65% against 45%. Attacking output favors Aston Villa on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.5 per match.
Aston Villa arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 3 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Arsenal, L 0-4 @ Brighton, L 1-2 @ Borussia Mönchengladbach, L 1-2 @ Paris Saint Germain.
Arsenal are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 10 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Aston Villa, W 3-0 v Coventry, W 3-0 v Manchester City, D 1-1 v Como.
Arsenal hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal.
The market prices AST at 15% implied. Our number sits apart on Aston Villa: a 14.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
