Where the market is wrong on Hapoel Kfar Saba v Ironi Modi'in
Hapoel Kfar Saba meet Ironi Modi'in in the Liga Leumit regular season - 2.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1431, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 38% against 40%. Attacking output favors Hapoel Kfar Saba on expected goals, 1.5 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 47%, over 2.5 goals around 41%. Draw no bet leans Hapoel Kfar Saba at 50%; double chance reads Hapoel Kfar Saba or draw 66%, Ironi Modi'in or draw 66%.
Hapoel Kfar Saba arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 v Ironi Modi'in, L 0-2 @ Hapoel Rishon LeZion, D 2-2 v Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa, D 1-1 v Hapoel Ramat Gan.
Ironi Modi'in are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 @ Hapoel Kfar Saba, L 0-2 v Maccabi Herzliya, W 3-1 @ Ashdod, L 0-2 @ Hapoel Ra'anana.
The market prices HAP at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on Ironi Modi'in: a 6.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
