Where the market is wrong on Javor v Naftagas
Javor meet Naftagas in the Prva Liga regular season - 10 at Stadion Kraj Moravice, Ivanjica.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 55%. Attacking output favors Javor on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.7 per match.
Javor arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 13 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 4-2 v Naftagas, D 2-2 @ Loznica, D 1-1 v FK Vozdovac, W 3-1 @ Semendrija 1924.
Naftagas are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 2-4 @ Javor, D 1-1 v TSC Backa Topola, D 1-1 @ Teleoptik, D 0-0 v Metalac GM.
The market prices JAV at 76% implied. Our number sits apart on Naftagas: a 28.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
