Where the market is wrong on Korona Kielce v Motor Lublin
Korona Kielce meet Motor Lublin in the Ekstraklasa regular season - 5 at Exbud Arena, Kielce.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 55%. Attacking output favors Motor Lublin on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 46%, over 2.5 goals around 39%. Draw no bet leans Motor Lublin at 51%; double chance reads Korona Kielce or draw 65%, Motor Lublin or draw 67%.
Korona Kielce arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Motor Lublin, W 2-1 @ Widzew Łódź, D 1-1 v Legia Warszawa, W 1-0 v Aris.
Motor Lublin are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Korona Kielce, W 1-0 v GKS Katowice, L 1-3 @ Pogon Szczecin, L 1-2 v Jagiellonia.
Korona Kielce hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Korona Kielce 1-1 Motor Lublin.
The market prices KOR at 51% implied. Our number sits apart on Motor Lublin: a 12.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 80 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output