Where the market is wrong on Saint Etienne v Montpellier
Saint Etienne meet Montpellier in the Ligue 2 regular season - 5 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Montpellier, 68% against 57%. Attacking output favors Saint Etienne on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
Saint Etienne arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 17 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 @ Dijon, W 4-0 v Grenoble, W 3-1 v Clermont Foot, W 3-0 @ Sochaux.
Montpellier are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 7 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Boulogne, W 1-0 @ Dunkerque, W 1-0 @ Nancy, D 1-1 v Dijon.
Saint Etienne hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 2 across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Saint Etienne 1-0 Montpellier.
The market prices SAI at 60% implied. Our number sits apart on Montpellier: a 19.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
