Where the market is wrong on Guingamp v Nantes
Guingamp meet Nantes in the Ligue 2 regular season - 4 at Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 30% against 29%. Attacking output favors Nantes on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.9 per match.
Guingamp arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v Nantes, L 0-1 @ Sochaux, W 1-0 v Boulogne, L 1-2 @ Metz.
Nantes are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 11 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 @ Guingamp, L 2-5 v Rodez, L 1-2 @ Laval, L 0-1 v RED Star FC 93.
Nantes hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Guingamp 3-3 Nantes.
The market prices GUI at 34% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
