Where the market is wrong on De Graafschap v NAC Breda
De Graafschap meet NAC Breda in the Eerste Divisie regular season - 7 at De Vijverberg, Dutinghem.
The baseline ratings are close, 1407 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans NAC Breda, 50% against 34%. Attacking output favors De Graafschap on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.6 per match.
De Graafschap arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 5 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v NAC Breda, W 2-1 @ Emmen, L 0-5 @ Heracles, L 1-4 v Almere City FC.
NAC Breda are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 12 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: W 4-2 v FC Eindhoven, W 2-1 @ De Graafschap, L 2-3 v Jong Utrecht, L 2-4 @ Waalwijk.
NAC Breda hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: De Graafschap 1-2 NAC Breda.
The market prices DE at 28% implied. Our number sits apart on De Graafschap: a 3.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
