Necaxa v Cruz Azul: the model read
Necaxa meet Cruz Azul in the Liga MX apertura - 6 at Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes.
Cruz Azul rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1627 to 1500. Recent form leans Cruz Azul, 68% against 50%. Attacking output favors Cruz Azul on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 63%, over 2.5 goals around 66%. Draw no bet leans Cruz Azul at 59%; double chance reads Necaxa or draw 58%, Cruz Azul or draw 71%.
Necaxa arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Cruz Azul, D 1-1 @ U.N.A.M. - Pumas, L 1-2 v Leon, W 2-1 @ New York City FC.
Cruz Azul are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Necaxa, L 0-2 v Atlas, L 1-2 @ Club Tijuana, L 1-2 v Chicago Fire.
The market prices NEC at 27% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 2.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
