Where the market is wrong on Genoa v Como
Genoa meet Como in the Serie A regular season - 3 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa.
Como rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1615 to 1466. Recent form leans Como, 68% against 43%. Attacking output favors Como on expected goals, 1.8 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 45%, over 2.5 goals around 58%. Draw no bet leans Como at 68%; double chance reads Genoa or draw 51%, Como or draw 77%.
Genoa arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Lazio, L 0-2 v Napoli, W 4-1 v Ascoli, L 0-1 v Deportivo La Coruna.
Como are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Napoli, D 1-1 @ Udinese, D 0-0 @ Liverpool, D 1-1 @ Arsenal.
Como hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 4 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Genoa 0-2 Como.
The market prices GEN at 19% implied. Our number sits apart on Genoa: a 4.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
