Where the market is wrong on Monza v Udinese
Monza meet Udinese in the Serie A regular season - 2 at U-Power Stadium, Monza.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 53%. Attacking output favors Monza on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 51%. Draw no bet leans Monza at 52%; double chance reads Monza or draw 66%, Udinese or draw 64%.
Monza arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 10 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 v Udinese, L 1-4 @ Inter, W 3-0 v Avellino, D 3-3 v Padova.
Udinese are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts), 7 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 @ Monza, D 1-1 v Como, W 1-0 v Padova, W 1-0 v Barcelona.
Udinese hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Monza 2-3 Udinese.
The market prices MON at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on Monza: a 4.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 63 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
