Independiente Medellin and Millonarios drew 2-2 at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin.
How it unfolded: 24' Luis Escorcia (MIL og), 39' Hayen Palacios (IND), 45' Leonardo Castro (MIL), 53' Nivaldo Yunior Erazo Hernandez (IND).
The numbers, IND to MIL: possession 47% to 53%; shots on target 3 to 4; total shots 9 to 9; corners 2 to 4.
Top match ratings: N. Erazo (IND) at 7.6, L. Castro (MIL) at 8.1.
Discipline: 5 yellow cards.
Changes off the bench: IND 4, MIL 5.
The model leaned Millonarios at 36% and the match went the other way. It priced this outcome at 30%, so the result sits within the model's own uncertainty, but it goes in the ledger as a miss.
Score projection: the model's most likely scoreline was Independiente Medellin 1-2 Millonarios; the match finished 2-2.
Ledger entry: the published 5.8-point edge on Millonarios did not land. Logged in the open, as every edge is.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output and real match data