Where the market is wrong on Tukums II v JFK Ventspils
Tukums II meet JFK Ventspils in the 1. Liga regular season - 17.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 33% against 30%. Attacking output favors Tukums II on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.0 per match.
Tukums II arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 6 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v JFK Ventspils, W 3-1 v Rēzekne FA, L 0-5 @ Mārupe, L 0-3 v Leevon / PPK.
JFK Ventspils are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 3 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Tukums II, W 1-0 v Skanste, L 0-7 @ Metta / LU, L 1-4 @ Rīgas FS II.
JFK Ventspils hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Tukums II 1-0 JFK Ventspils.
The market prices TUK at 52% implied. Our number sits apart on JFK Ventspils: a 9.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 74 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
