Where the market is wrong on Parnu JK Vaprus U21 v Tulevik
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 meet Tulevik in the Esiliiga B regular season - 24.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 53%. Attacking output favors Parnu JK Vaprus U21 on expected goals, 2.8 to 2.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 96%, over 2.5 goals around 98%. Draw no bet leans Parnu JK Vaprus U21 at 51%; double chance reads Parnu JK Vaprus U21 or draw 63%, Tulevik or draw 62%.
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 7 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Tulevik, L 0-1 @ Tartu Kalev, D 2-2 @ Luunja, L 2-3 v Levadia U19.
Tulevik are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 8 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v Narva U21, D 2-2 @ Parnu JK Vaprus U21, L 1-4 v Levadia U19, L 2-4 @ Tartu Kalev.
The market prices PAR at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on Tulevik: a 5.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output