Marseille v Toulouse: the model read
Marseille meet Toulouse in the Coupe de France quarter-finals at Orange Velodrome, Marseille.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1432, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Marseille, 53% against 39%. Attacking output favors Marseille on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Marseille arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 10 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Monaco, W 4-0 v Strasbourg, L 1-2 v Atletico Madrid, W 3-1 v Athletic Club.
Toulouse are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Stade Brestois 29, L 0-2 v Lyon, L 1-2 v Hamburger SV, W 2-1 v Real Sociedad.
Marseille hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 0 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Toulouse 0-1 Marseille.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
