Where the market is wrong on Bay FC W v Houston Dash W
Bay FC W meet Houston Dash W in the NWSL Women group stage at PayPal Park, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 40% against 43%. Attacking output favors Houston Dash W on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 49%, over 2.5 goals around 43%. Draw no bet leans Houston Dash W at 53%; double chance reads Bay FC W or draw 64%, Houston Dash W or draw 68%.
Bay FC W arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Houston Dash W, L 2-3 @ Utah Royals W, D 0-0 @ Chicago Red Stars W, L 2-3 v Seattle Reign FC W.
Houston Dash W are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Bay FC W, W 5-0 v Chicago Red Stars W, W 3-2 @ North Carolina Courage W, D 1-1 v Kansas City W.
The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Bay FC W 1-0 Houston Dash W.
The market prices BAY at 45% implied. Our number sits apart on Houston Dash W: a 6.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 68 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
