Where the market is wrong on Samtredia v Odishi 1919
Samtredia meet Odishi 1919 in the Erovnuli Liga 2 regular season - 23 at Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium, Samtredia.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 45%. Attacking output favors Samtredia on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 58%, over 2.5 goals around 55%. Draw no bet leans Samtredia at 54%; double chance reads Samtredia or draw 68%, Odishi 1919 or draw 62%.
Samtredia arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 11 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Odishi 1919, W 1-0 @ Shturmi, W 1-0 v Gori, W 4-2 @ Aragvi Dusheti.
Odishi 1919 are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Samtredia, L 0-1 v Sioni, D 0-0 @ Merani Martvili, W 2-1 v Kolkheti Poti.
Samtredia hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Samtredia 3-0 Odishi 1919.
The market prices SAM at 51% implied. Our number sits apart on Odishi 1919: a 9.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
