Where the market is wrong on Gareji v Kolkheti Poti
Gareji meet Kolkheti Poti in the Erovnuli Liga 2 regular season - 22 at Central stadium, undefined.
Gareji rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1638 to 1408. Recent form leans Gareji, 70% against 38%. Attacking output favors Gareji on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 43%, over 2.5 goals around 40%. Draw no bet leans Gareji at 59%; double chance reads Gareji or draw 71%, Kolkheti Poti or draw 60%.
Gareji arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Kolkheti Poti, L 0-2 v Aragvi Dusheti, D 0-0 @ Telavi, L 1-4 v Gagra.
Kolkheti Poti are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Gareji, D 1-1 v Telavi, L 1-2 @ Odishi 1919, D 0-0 v Aragvi Dusheti.
Gareji hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Gareji 3-2 Kolkheti Poti.
The market prices GAR at 33% implied. Our number sits apart on Gareji: a 6.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 69 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
