Where the market is wrong on Coritiba v Mirassol
Coritiba meet Mirassol in the Serie A regular season - 26.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 53%. Attacking output favors Coritiba on expected goals, 1.2 to 1.1 per match.
Coritiba arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 @ Remo, W 2-1 v Corinthians, D 1-1 @ Sao Paulo, W 2-1 v Chapecoense-sc.
Mirassol are patchy: 0W-4D-1L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Palmeiras, D 1-1 @ Santos, D 0-0 @ LDU de Quito, L 1-5 v Flamengo.
The market prices COR at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on Mirassol: a 6.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 66 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
