Where the market is wrong on Gremio v Chapecoense-sc
Gremio meet Chapecoense-sc in the Serie A regular season - 25 at Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre.
The baseline ratings are close, 1504 to 1432, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Gremio, 50% against 39%. Attacking output favors Gremio on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.2 per match.
Gremio arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Chapecoense-sc, D 0-0 @ Internacional, L 0-1 @ RB Bragantino, L 0-3 @ Atletico-MG.
Chapecoense-sc are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Gremio, W 1-0 v Sao Paulo, D 3-3 v Bahia, L 1-2 @ Coritiba.
Gremio hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Gremio 3-1 Chapecoense-sc.
The market prices GRE at 61% implied. Our number sits apart on Chapecoense-sc: a 14.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
