USA v Guatemala: the model read
USA meet Guatemala in the CONCACAF Gold Cup semi-finals at Energizer Park, St. Louis, Missouri.
USA rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1592 to 1456. Recent form leans USA, 60% against 42%. Attacking output favors USA on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.2 per match.
USA arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 v Belgium, W 2-0 v Bosnia & Herzegovina, L 2-3 @ Türkiye, W 2-0 v Australia.
Guatemala are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 4 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Ecuador, L 1-3 @ Czechia, L 0-7 @ Algeria, L 0-1 @ Canada.
USA hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: USA 2-1 Guatemala.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
