USA v Costa Rica: the model read
USA meet Costa Rica in the CONCACAF Gold Cup quarter-finals at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota.
The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 55%. Attacking output favors Costa Rica on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.9 per match.
USA arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 v Belgium, W 2-0 v Bosnia & Herzegovina, L 2-3 @ Türkiye, W 2-0 v Australia.
Costa Rica are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 3 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ England, L 1-3 @ Colombia, L 0-5 v Iran, D 2-2 @ Jordan.
USA hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: USA 2-2 Costa Rica.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
