Tunisia v Netherlands

Tunisia meet Netherlands in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group f at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City. The model makes Netherlands the most likely outcome at 45%, with the full read 26% TUN, 30% draw, 45% NED.

Netherlands rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2000 to 1790. Recent form leans Netherlands, 72% against 58%. Attacking output favors Netherlands on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.1 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Tunisia 0-1 Netherlands, from expected goals of 0.8 to 2.0.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 47%, over 2.5 goals around 52%. Draw no bet leans Netherlands at 64%; double chance reads Tunisia or draw 55%, Netherlands or draw 74%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.