Mexico v England

Mexico meet England in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 16 at Estadio Banorte, Mexico City. The model makes England the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 30% MEX, 30% draw, 40% ENG.

England rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2040 to 1880. Recent form separates little, 66% against 72%. Attacking output favors England on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Mexico 0-1 England, from expected goals of 1.1 to 1.7.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 54%, over 2.5 goals around 53%. Draw no bet leans England at 57%; double chance reads Mexico or draw 60%, England or draw 70%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.