France v Spain

France meet Spain in the FIFA World Cup 2026 semifinal at Dallas Stadium, Arlington. The model makes Spain the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 32% FRA, 30% draw, 37% ESP.

The baseline ratings are close, 2060 to 2080, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 74% against 80%. Attacking output favors Spain on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.9 per match.

Model score projection: most likely France 0-1 Spain, from expected goals of 1.2 to 1.5.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 51%. Draw no bet leans Spain at 54%; double chance reads France or draw 63%, Spain or draw 68%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.