Belgium v Iran

Belgium meet Iran in the FIFA World Cup 2026 group g at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood. The model makes Belgium the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% BEL, 30% draw, 29% IRN.

Belgium rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1960 to 1810. Recent form separates little, 66% against 60%. Attacking output favors Belgium on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.2 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Belgium 1-0 Iran, from expected goals of 1.7 to 1.0.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 50%, over 2.5 goals around 49%. Draw no bet leans Belgium at 58%; double chance reads Belgium or draw 71%, Iran or draw 60%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.