Where the market is wrong on Gainsborough Trinity v Leamington
Gainsborough Trinity meet Leamington in the FA Cup 2nd round qualifying.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1432, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 39%. Attacking output favors Gainsborough Trinity on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.4 per match.
Gainsborough Trinity arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Leamington, D 1-1 @ Leamington, L 0-2 v Avro, W 4-2 @ Sherwood Colliery.
Leamington are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Gainsborough Trinity, D 1-1 v Gainsborough Trinity, L 1-3 @ Bishop's Stortford, W 3-1 v Ilkeston Town.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Gainsborough Trinity 3-0 Leamington.
The market prices GAI at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on Leamington: a 6.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
