Where the market is wrong on Camacha v Florgrade
Camacha meet Florgrade in the Taça de Portugal round of 128.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 57%. Attacking output favors Camacha on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Camacha arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Florgrade, D 2-2 @ Guarda, W 1-0 v Florgrade, D 2-2 @ Machico.
Florgrade are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 4 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Camacha, W 2-0 v Sanjoanense, L 0-1 @ Camacha, D 0-0 v São João Ver.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Camacha 0-1 Florgrade.
The market prices CAM at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on Florgrade: a 4.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 62 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output